Yearly Sales Cycle – Buying a Home in Danville California

What’s the Best time to Buy a Home in Danville CA?

There is some data we can look at that may help a homebuyer considering a purchase in Danville.

Low interest rates combined with the decline in home prices in Danville over the last four years have resulted in a high affordability index. The affordability index is usually seen as an indicator more in the first-time buyer market than in the move-up buyer market, but for a move-up buyer wanting to sell a condo or townhome to move into a detached single family home knowing that the affordability index is high is good information to have.

For the last two years, the affordability index has been at its highest in early Spring.

First-time homebuyers, move-up buyers, and investors should anticipate a slight uptick in the number of foreclosures coming on the market in the first quarter of next year as banks recover from the “robo-agent” mess.

Over the last 5 years, the average sales price was at its peak toward the end of summer and the beginning of fall – July to September. The median sales price for homes in the area was at its highest usually in September, though 2008 saw the high in May and 2009 was in November.

For the last 3 years, June and July have see the lowest number of “days on market” for homes being sold in Danville, CA.

The number of closed sales has seen an interesting trend over the last 5 years. In 2006 & 2007 more home sales closed in June & July. In 2008 & 2009, August and September were the high months for closed home sales. In 2010, we saw closed home sales peaking in July again.

The number of new listings coming on the market peaked in July for 2006, but over the last 4 years we have seen the highs for new listings entering the market returning to the traditional months of April and May.

In a traditional market, June and July are usually the big months for home sales as families want to get moved and settled as quickly as they can before the new school year begins. Even though events in the Danville CA housing market over the last 5 years have been challenging and topsy-turvy at times, it seems the school year is still the #1 influence on the homes sales cycle when it comes to measuring the peaks and valleys of the yearly sales cycle.

For move-up buyers wanting to take advantage of high “homes for sale” inventory in Danville – look to the traditional months of April and May for inventory peaks to give you the most in terms of choice.

First-time buyers should ignore all strategies except one – look for the house that most suits your needs right now. Don’t wait and try to predict the market or the best time to buy. That strategy has already cost thousands of home buyers the tax credits they could have had and the 4% interest rates too. If you feel secure enough about employment and your financial status – now – remains an excellent time to buy. There is more to lose with rising interest rates than there is to gain on waiting for an unbelievable deal.

All homebuyers and homesellers in Danville need to keep their eye on local unemployment and the workings in Washington, D.C. on tax reform. Look for a major shift in 2011 or 2012 on home mortgage tax deduction. Another very good reason to buy now and lock in a low rate below 5.5%.

I guess the best time to buy a home in Danville, California continues to be when you want to or need to. Everyone’s situation is unique. What we have seen over the last few years are many people losing out on the house they wanted at a good price, with great interest rates because of the “Nostradamas Syndrome” – trying to foretell the future and hit the housing lottery.

According to the California Association of Realtors, the housing market in Contra Costa County hit bottom in 2007. This doesn’t mean home prices still aren’t settling in some neighborhoods and price points, but overall, price stability has returned to most markets.

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Danville, CA

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Email Craig if you would like to know more about buying or selling a home or condo in Danville, CA (925) 984-4910